Likelihood function - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia



Likelihood function - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
a likelihood function (often simply the likelihood) is a function of the parameters of a statistical model. The likelihood of a set of parameter values, θ, given outcomes x, is equal to the probability of those observed outcomes given those parameter values, that is \mathcal{L}(\theta |x) = P(x | \theta).

Likelihood functions play a key role in statistical inference, especially methods of estimating a parameter from a set of statistics. In informal contexts, "likelihood" is often used as a synonym for "probability." But in statistical usage, a distinction is made depending on the roles of the outcome or parameter. 

Probability is used when describing a function of the outcome given a fixed parameter value. For example, if a coin is flipped 10 times and it is a fair coin, what is the probability of it landing heads-up every time? 

Likelihood is used when describing a function of a parameter given an outcome. For example, if a coin is flipped 10 times and it has landed heads-up 10 times, what is the likelihood that the coin is fair?

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