Republicans should be winning this election. Trump's new campaign chief shows why they're losing. Remember when Trump said he would hire the best people? Yeah, he's not hiring the best people. Updated by Ezra Klein on August 17, 2016, 1:20 p.m. ET @ezraklein Rick Wood-USA TODAY Sports If you combine the best election forecasting models that political scientists have produced, they tell you that Republicans should be favored to win the 2016 presidential election, albeit narrowly. If you look at the polls, however, you find Donald Trump is losing this election, and it isn't even close. Our best estimate , as of today, is that Trump is costing Republicans about 5.7 percentage points in the polls — enough to turn a narrow win into a big loss. Today's news that Trump is putting the head of an online conservative tabloid in charge of his campaign helps explain the drivers of the gap. When making their forecasts, political scientists — not to mention pollsters, pundits,
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